I think predictions of 10m+ are wildly ambitious and not grounded in reality. In the last few hours Kickstarter has slowed down to a crawl. You have to remember that the majority of people who are passionate about shenmue have already contributed. A lot of these people are die hard fans who owned the original games. The rest of the Dreamcast owners would have completely forgotten and stopped caring a long time ago. I know personally quite a few people who purchased Shenmue and were underwhelmed completely by it. The others sold their Dreamcast even before its demise and never bought Shenmue 2, even if they liked the first one. Try convincing them to cough up even a dollar for Shenmue now, especially given that on the KickStarter page, it is stated that the "2m" goal has already been reached. Not that easy.

The majority of "gaming" public from circa 2000 did not own a Dreamcast, so they have even less incentive to back up the bid. Today, I thought I'd spread the word to the guys I work with in my office. All in their mid twenties. Around 10 of them. 7-8 of those play/used to play games - but NONE owned a Dreamcast, let alone knew what the hell Shenmue even is. Sure, they were intrigued when I told them the whole story, but that's it. They wouldn't contribute a dime. And I'm sure they forgotten about it already...

Havng said that, I think that realistically it can reach 4.5m. Anything over that seems optimistic.