For those who haven't noticed,

they updated the 1400$ tier to include the 1200$ instead of the 500$ tier.

It's finaly worth upgrading :-)

I wish they would advertise these updates better. And with" better" I mean "at all".

I made a tool to predict the outcome of the Shenmue 3 KS, based on the data from other game KS compaigns.

I made this for personal use, but I thought some might be interested in it, so I will share.

This is based on the average daily USD pledge increase of the final days from the 50 most successfull video game KS projects within the last 12 months.

NOTE: this are predictions based on the average of other games. The real outcome will depend on the compaign itself. Especialy marketing affords. It can be more or less, we will see.

http://s17.postimg.org/cac9k8fv3/shenmue3_ks_prediction.jpg
Total: 5,539,215.90$

Final & Predicted Data:

DAY: DAILY (TOTAL) INCREASE%

Day 1: 2,817,387.00$ (2,819,033.75$) increase: 100.00%
Day 2: 277,735.00$ (3,097,700.00$) increase: 9.85%
Day 3: 174,070.00$ (3,276,314.00$) increase: 5.62%
Day 4: 94,412.00$ (3,364,501.75$) increase: 2.88%
Day 5: 91,476.00$ (3,456,664.00$) increase: 2.72%
Day 6: 59,049.00$ (3,514,737.75$) increase: 1.71%
Day 7: 44,717.00$ (3,558,874.75$) increase: 1.27%
Day 8: 30,940.00$ (3,590,008.75$) increase: 0.87%
Day 9: 25,797.00$ (3,616,585.75$) increase: 0.72%
Day 10: 26,295.00$ (3,641,937.25$) increase: 0.73%
Day 11: 26,885.00$ (3,668,470.25$) increase: 0.74%
Day 12: 68,251.00$ (3,737,162.25$) increase: 1.86%
Day 13: 9,625.00$ (3,746,696.25$) increase: 0.26%
Day 14: 19,228.00$ (3,765,786.25$) increase: 0.51%
Day 15: 10,739.00$ (3,776,804.25$) increase: 0.29%
Day 16: 13,873.00$ (3,790,303.25$) increase: 0.37%
Day 17: 19,991.00$ (3,810,440.25$) increase: 0.53%
Day 18: 331,167.00$ (4,142,356.50$) increase: 8.69%
Day 19: 104,153.00$ (4,246,061.50$) increase: 2.51%
Day 20: 84,957.00$ (4,331,256.50$) increase: 2.00%
Day 21: 80,687.00$ (4,411,525.50$) increase: 1.86%
Day 22: 70,515.00$ (4,482,562.50$) increase: 1.60%

Day 23: 61,427.25$ (4,543,989.75$) increase: 1.37%
Day 24: 74,692.26$ (4,618,682.01$) increase: 1.64%
Day 25: 84,168.46$ (4,702,850.47$) increase: 1.82%
Day 26: 77,037.92$ (4,779,888.39$) increase: 1.64%
Day 27: 61,905.73$ (4,841,794.12$) increase: 1.30%
Day 28: 107,639.70$ (4,949,433.82$) increase: 2.22%
Day 29: 103,920.48$ (5,053,354.30$) increase: 2.10%
Day 30: 169,364.23$ (5,222,718.53$) increase: 3.35%
Day 31: 316,497.38$ (5,539,215.90$) increase: 6.06%

Total: 5,539,215.90$


KS compaign data used:
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night [2015-4-11 18:58:41 > 2015-5-13 5:0:0] Raised: 5,545,991.70$ (5,545,991.70$)
Yooka-Laylee - A 3D Platformer Rare-vival! [2015-4-1 17:57:2 > 2015-5-17 1:0:0] Raised: 2,090,104.10£ (3,225,225.40$)
Crowfall - Throne War PC MMO [2015-1-24 14:0:26 > 2015-2-26 13:0:26] Raised: 1,766,204.58$ (1,766,204.58$)
Shadowrun: Hong Kong [2015-0-13 18:45:24 > 2015-1-17 19:0:0] Raised: 1,204,726.47$ (1,204,726.47$)
Underworld Ascendant [2015-1-4 14:54:35 > 2015-2-6 14:54:35] Raised: 860,356.93$ (860,356.93$)
Thimbleweed Park: A New Classic Point & Click Adventure! [2014-10-18 19:0:39 > 2014-11-18 19:0:39] Raised: 626,250.86$ (626,250.86$)
Descent: Underground [2015-2-10 17:42:5 > 2015-3-11 2:0:0] Raised: 601,773.33$ (601,773.33$)
CLANNAD Official English Release [2014-10-10 19:48:28 > 2015-0-9 19:48:28] Raised: 541,161.60$ (541,161.60$)
Toejam and Earl: Back in the Groove [2015-1-25 21:0:16 > 2015-2-27 20:0:16] Raised: 508,637.69$ (508,637.69$)
The Grisaia Trilogy: Three Huge Visual Novels for PC [2014-11-17 5:0:9 > 2015-1-1 8:59:0] Raised: 475,255.60$ (475,255.60$)
Umbra (PC and Linux) [2015-4-14 22:0:53 > 2015-5-14 22:0:53] Raised: 406,979.14$ (406,979.14$)
Squad - Communicate. Coordinate. Conquer [2015-4-27 0:14:19 > 2015-5-27 7:17:0] Raised: 434,805.02$ (353,793.12$)
Pathologic (Мор.Утопия) [2014-8-4 12:49:40 > 2014-9-7 12:49:40] Raised: 333,127.97$ (333,127.97$)
Project Scissors: NightCry [2015-0-24 8:59:54 > 2015-1-23 8:59:54] Raised: 314,771.85$ (314,771.85$)
We Happy Few - Welcome to Wellington Wells, you Saucy Minx [2015-5-4 17:49:30 > 2015-6-4 17:49:30] Raised: 334,754.34$ (269,615.50$)
The Flame in the Flood [2014-9-7 18:4:0 > 2014-10-7 3:0:0] Raised: 251,647.74$ (251,647.74$)
Little Devil Inside [2015-3-11 0:32:31 > 2015-4-26 0:32:31] Raised: 306,515.47$ (235,709.88$)
STRAFE® [2015-0-20 14:30:11 > 2015-1-19 14:30:11] Raised: 207,847.40$ (207,847.40$)
Commodore Amiga: a visual Commpendium [2014-9-13 7:30:25 > 2014-10-12 7:30:25] Raised: 129,866.00£ (208,764.62$)
Starr Mazer [2015-0-22 19:0:42 > 2015-1-21 19:0:42] Raised: 193,566.00$ (193,566.00$)
VIDEO GAMES LIVE: LEVEL 4! [Let's do it again!!!] [2014-9-20 18:0:27 > 2014-10-29 2:0:0] Raised: 187,646.27$ (187,646.27$)
Tokyo Dark [2015-4-11 14:13:34 > 2015-5-10 14:13:34] Raised: 225,386.11$ (186,686.39$)
Perception [2015-4-26 15:1:51 > 2015-5-25 15:1:51] Raised: 168,041.85$ (168,041.85$)
BEDLAM [2014-8-25 15:44:33 > 2014-9-25 15:44:33] Raised: 166,540.76$ (166,540.76$)
CodeSpells: Express Yourself With Magic [2014-8-2 7:17:41 > 2014-9-4 8:59:0] Raised: 164,014.80$ (164,014.80$)
Edge Of Eternity (Pc, Mac, Linux, PS4, XBOX ONE) [2015-1-15 12:1:9 > 2015-2-22 11:1:9] Raised: 161,246.54$ (161,246.54$)
Identity [2015-0-5 17:38:45 > 2015-1-4 17:38:45] Raised: 187,859.01$ (159,405.18$)
Halcyon 6: Starbase Commander [2015-2-10 8:59:46 > 2015-3-9 9:59:46] Raised: 187,706.54$ (148,768.95$)
Formula Fusion - Next-Gen Anti-Gravity Racing Game [2015-3-23 17:11:56 > 2015-4-23 17:11:56] Raised: 79,656.34£ (118,923.07$)
PRISMATA: A New Hybrid Game of Pure Strategy [2014-10-21 0:35:20 > 2014-11-21 0:35:20] Raised: 140,000.56$ (123,639.69$)
Reformation C64 Track Remakes by Matt Gray (Last Ninja 2) [2014-10-2 11:25:46 > 2014-11-2 11:25:46] Raised: 75,266.00£ (120,402.87$)
Hero-U Fantasy Adventure Role-Playing Game [2015-4-12 7:0:27 > 2015-5-16 8:59:0] Raised: 116,888.66$ (116,888.66$)
Pinball Arcade: The Addams Family [2014-8-12 21:35:3 > 2014-9-12 21:35:3] Raised: 115,276.42$ (115,276.42$)
Town of Salem - Mobile, Steam, Localization [2014-8-13 21:41:5 > 2014-9-18 21:41:5] Raised: 114,197.44$ (114,197.44$)
Into the Stars [2015-0-5 15:15:12 > 2015-1-4 15:15:12] Raised: 111,274.51$ (111,274.51$)
ZX Spectrum: a visual compendium by BITMAP BOOKS [2015-4-15 8:1:12 > 2015-5-15 0:0:0] Raised: 71,175.00£ (112,044.80$)
Children of Morta [2015-0-20 19:57:1 > 2015-1-19 19:57:1] Raised: 108,938.00$ (108,938.00$)
Shards Online: Play by your rules [2014-10-12 17:57:30 > 2014-11-13 2:0:0] Raised: 105,717.00$ (105,717.00$)
That Dragon, Cancer [2014-10-12 18:19:48 > 2014-11-13 3:0:0] Raised: 104,491.16$ (104,491.16$)
Deadwood: The Forgotten Curse [2015-3-14 18:59:21 > 2015-4-14 18:59:21] Raised: 102,230.00$ (102,230.00$)
BATTLE CHEF BRIGADE [2014-8-24 15:4:10 > 2014-9-28 4:0:0] Raised: 100,344.51$ (100,344.51$)
Last Year - 5 vs 1 Multiplayer Survival Horror [2014-10-4 6:59:44 > 2014-11-19 6:59:44] Raised: 114,711.00$ (101,646.93$)
Orion Trail [2015-1-3 17:6:49 > 2015-2-13 4:59:0] Raised: 97,801.00$ (97,801.00$)
Rocket Ranger Reloaded [2014-10-13 1:1:38 > 2014-11-18 1:1:38] Raised: 90,715.00$ (90,715.00$)
Regalia - Of Men And Monarchs [2015-5-2 17:27:43 > 2015-6-3 17:27:43] Raised: 90,245.57$ (90,245.57$)
Memory's Dogma a scifi indie visual novel from Japan [2015-5-2 17:0:24 > 2015-6-2 17:0:24] Raised: 88,636.00$ (88,636.00$)
Strength Of The SWORD ULTIMATE [2015-1-9 11:20:44 > 2015-2-11 10:20:44] Raised: 88,093.55$ (88,093.55$)
NF Magazine: 2015 Renewals & New Subscriptions [2015-0-12 22:51:24 > 2015-2-11 3:0:0] Raised: 86,490.45$ (86,490.45$)
That Which Sleeps [2014-8-22 19:25:50 > 2014-9-22 19:25:50] Raised: 85,593.65$ (85,593.65$)
Rogue Wizards RPG - Fantasy Roguelike Role Playing Game [2014-9-6 10:27:6 > 2014-10-12 8:59:0] Raised: 74,739.02$ (74,739.02$)

The reason Shenmue came to XBox rather than Playstation 2 is most likely to the fact that the XBox was closer to the Dreamcast and Sega was already partnered to Microsoft for developing the DC.

Microsoft was heavily involved in developing the Dreamcast, because they wanted a console to support Windows and DirectX. Thats why you have that "Windows CE" logo infront of your Dreamcast.

The Dreamcast was basicly the very first (Direct)X-Box.

If the DC had more success, the Xbox may have never existed. Microsoft had been forced to make a console if they wanted their software to survive on the console market - and so they did.

Sega also was involved with the developement of the Xbox. At some point there were even plans for the Xbox to be able to play Dreamcast games. More on that: http://segaretro.org/Xbox