I don’t post here often anymore, but it is one of the only forums on the internet (that I know of) where people can engage in an intellectual debate without it ending (or beginning) in “shut up you n00b, I hax0r3ed your m0m” or something to that effect. Partial credit goes to Martin for his immense additions to some topics.
Anyway on with the show.
Some of you may remember a few months back there was all sorts of discussion in the media and politically over Iran developing its nuclear architecture. It was a heated debate with neither side (i.e. Iran and the US with partial UN support) wishing to back down. The media coverage was widespread and the Iranian government was earning itself a bad (or perhaps merely worse) name.
Then all of a sudden the media and the politicians were no longer interested in Iran and its nuclear capabilities. The UN also was turning its attention to new affairs, and I think we all remember what those new affairs were: the Hezbollah capture of Israeli soldiers. Since then the situation has ‘escalated’ as the British media would say, and of course it would escalate because Israel are hardly going enter into diplomatic discussion and compromise with a so called ‘terrorist’ group who is seeking to destroy their very way of life.
Perhaps someone knew that capturing Israeli soldiers would cause the proverbial tightly pulled string holding both sides back from a full blown war to snap?
Perhaps someone planned such a situation…
But who would do such a thing? Or rather who would have the incentive to do such a thing?
The Iranian government.
Back in the 1980s Iran helped to create Hezbollah by providing finance and ever since it has provided money and weaponry to the organisation. Some might say that Hezbollah owed a debt to Iran, which could be called in, without question, at any given moment, should Iran require something of Hezbollah.
Iran did require something: a decoy. Something to take the media, political and UN attention away from Iran and its new found nuclear capabilities. Something like a war perhaps? Perhaps Iran decided to call in some old debts…
Some may argue that it is typical of Hezbollah to take hostages, it is something they do often, and therefore it is unlike that Iran had anything to do with it. The fact that this is so can only back up my theory because it means few people would believe that Iran had involvement when it is something typical of Hezbollah instigating themselves. This belief would work in Iran’s favour. Also Hezbollah are known for taking ‘western’ hostages rather than Israeli soldiers. Taking a few western hostages would hardly provoke a war now would it?
I believe this hypothesis to be true because the events have worked out to be highly beneficial for both Hezbollah and Iran; both getting what they want. Hezbollah get to destroy some of Israel, possibly recover some of their men Israel have imprisoned in a trade and fulfil the definition of terrorism and Iran get the spotlight taken off them, from all angles.
But one question remains. Why would Iran take such action? To prevent themselves from becoming another Iraq or something more sinister, i.e. nuclear weapons?
Discuss.