Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

(Chapter 7 and beyond)

Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby MegaScience » Tue Jun 16, 2015 8:21 am

It's going to keep in a slowdown unless they advertise the stretch goals better. There's only mention briefly in the video, and ALL the way at the bottom of the page. I noticed a lot of people who don't understand Kickstarter coming into this, so people might be stopping around $2mil thinking that's the top. AKA not knowing of stretch goals.
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby Lan Di-sama » Tue Jun 16, 2015 8:28 am

I think if they set the goal at 10mil, they could have reached it no problem. Now that the goal of 2mil is met, it probably won't climb at such a high rate. But, if anyone's like me, there are dedicated fans out there who haven't donated yet. I plan to, I just need to get some finances in order and think about which tier I want. I also am paying off an upcoming vacation so I need to see where I will stand when the Kickstarter ends.
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby spinksy » Tue Jun 16, 2015 8:40 am

i'll admit I'm fairly new to kickstarter and this is the first thing I've ever backed and the overall donation goals should be alot better advertised. I only saw them by accident pretty much.

I reckon it will hot around 5 million but I'd like to see close to 10 million
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby squall » Tue Jun 16, 2015 8:51 am

I'd like to see it hit a new record, but realistically, I'm guessing much of the fanbase has donated.

That said, I haven't yet - but I certainly will. I still own and play 1 & 2 on Dreamcast, and I've held out hope for years.

So, I'm going to say $5-6m, but I hope it can get $8-10m.
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby DaMulder » Tue Jun 16, 2015 12:59 pm

Yeah! Glad to be back!
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby alexh86 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 1:02 pm

My guess is that the project will approach but not quite hit $10m. It seems pretty clear at this point that they will blow past their top stretch goal and need to come up with some other ideas to keep the funding coming in.

Recommendation: Physical PS4 collector's set
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby Takumi » Tue Jun 16, 2015 1:05 pm

I'm guessing the current trajectory will fall greatly over the next week. It'll probably end up somewhere near 8 million.
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby Kaven » Tue Jun 16, 2015 3:38 pm

I think they can hit 10 million. For reference, Pebble did roughly $800,000 on day one, ran from April 11, 2012, through May 18, 2012 ending with a grand total of 10.3 mil. Ouya did about 2.5 mil on day one and ended with around 8.6 mil.

Also, this thread needs a poll.
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby Luke_09 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 3:43 pm

I think realistically about $5 million.

BUT.. saying that, there are still 31 days to go. I'd be over the moon if it could get $10 million, that'd be amazing.

I guess we as Shenmue fans have to try to spread the word regarding this KickStarter campaign (and the stretch-goals it includes!) in order to ensure that it makes as much money as it possibly can!

It's great that we can say that Shenmue 3 is finally coming, but my attitude is, the more money Yu Suzuki gets, the more his vision of Shenmue 3 can be realised.
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby Sonoshee » Tue Jun 16, 2015 3:44 pm

It's still raking in pledges every few seconds. I am going to go with $5-8million by the end.
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby Riku Rose » Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:03 pm

Kickstarters tend to die down a few days after the announcement and never really make anymore money until the last day or two. I think Yu can keep the steady pledges coming in since it is E3 week. He needs to beg everyone and anyone to interview him and totally whore himself out. Going to be weird seeing Yu in the limelight again.
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby Outlawstar98 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:07 pm

I am hoping 8-10m, but going to keep a eye on this tracker, http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/ysnet/shenmue-3/
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby Dragon Light » Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:56 pm

My guess definetly 10m+.
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby ShinChuck » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:04 pm

I'm fairly positive we'll at least hit the the 4-6 million mark. Would love to see it higher. I think word of mouth will help us quite a bit, and the last few days tend to be big as well. I'ma go with 7 million.
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Re: Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

Postby Thief » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:05 pm

Honestly I have no idea what this will make, which is I guess what scares me. I can realistically see it going both ways... so I guess this month will just suck for me because I'll be so anxious all the time.
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