Jackie Fhan wrote:If the KS had been handled better it would already be at 5 imo
If the KS had been handled properly, I genuinely think it would have had a decent shot at making $10M.
Jackie Fhan wrote:for those of you saying 5.5 million, please explain that... it makes no sense at all.
I'm basing my estimation off of kicktraqs of some of the most recent big video game KSs in comparison to Shenmue III's so far.
Look at the daily data here:
https://www.kicktraq.com/projects/ysnet ... hart-dailyNow compare that to the following:
Bloodstained:
https://www.kicktraq.com/projects/iga/b ... hart-dailyYooka-Laylee:
https://www.kicktraq.com/projects/playt ... hart-dailyMighty No. 9:
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/mighty ... hart-dailyNow sure, Shenmue III blows all 3 of them out of the water in the first few days, but you have to remember that it was announced on the biggest video games platform of the year - Shenmue III's KS had an immeasurably better launch than any video game KS ever has, and probably ever will.
Then you look at how much Shenmue III is earning daily and the drop-off is absolutely insane - even compared to the usual drop-off trend you can see with Bloodstained, Yooka and MN9 - it's already fallen far below any of the daily amounts for Bloodstained, even Mighty No. 9 didn't drop to $25,000 a day until the absolute dead days of their campaign. I would say this is to be expected due to the fact that Shenmue III's KS had such a huge launch, it was always going to have a steeper decline, but I did not expect it to be
this bad - not at all helped by the fact that the KS is being run by possibly the most utterly useless KS managing company I've ever seen.
The most worrying trend for me, though, is the backers per day - take a look at Shenmue III's - we've already fallen miles below the Bloodstained campaign comparatively, both Bloodstained and Mighty No. 9 never had a day as bad as yesterday's 351 Shenmue III backers, and even Yooka-Laylee managed a good amount more than that up until well into the middle of their campaign.
To me, that quite clearly says that Shenmue III's KS has been doing so well on name alone. The games are a hell of a lot more niche than a lot of people realise - the marketing for the KS is absolutely embarrassingly incompetent, there's nothing there for newcomers to care about, and as a result we are seeing a sharp decline in backers, because everyone who loves Shenmue has already backed it.
Jackie Fhan wrote:then it will gain near 2 million over the last two days easily.
You are in for a terrible, terrible shock come July 18th if you seriously believe that.