Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

(Chapter 7 and beyond)

Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby punkmanced » Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:02 pm

Given that the Kickstarter results, while certainly impressive, should hardly count towards “real” sales…essentially, once the game’s out, it’ll be time to break open those piggy banks once again, gentlemen.

The campaign’s 70K backers (aka the dedicated fanbase) will most likely buy at least one additional copy upon the game’s release; however, with that said, it’ll be especially interesting to see how sales fare beyond this hardcore nucleus.

What will be considered successful enough for Shenmue 4 to be green-lit?
Will there be another KS campaign if Shenmue 3 underperforms?
Interesting times ahead.
User avatar
punkmanced
Man Mo Acolyte
Man Mo Acolyte
 
Joined: May 2003
Favorite title: Shenmue

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby Amir » Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:11 pm

punkmanced wrote: Given that the Kickstarter results, while certainly impressive, should hardly count towards “real” sales…essentially, once the game’s out, it’ll be time to break open those piggy banks once again, gentlemen.

The campaign’s 70K backers (aka the dedicated fanbase) will most likely buy at least one additional copy upon the game’s release; however, with that said, it’ll be especially interesting to see how sales fare beyond this hardcore nucleus.

What will be considered successful enough for Shenmue 4 to be green-lit?
Will there be another KS campaign if Shenmue 3 underperforms?
Interesting times ahead.


I think Sony will make a big push on the marketing to see a return on their investment. If they can pull off a Witcher III, i.e. have the third in a series be much more successful than the first two, then I don't think we'll need to Kickstart a Shenmue IV or even V.
User avatar
Amir
"After Burner...Great!"
"After Burner...Great!"
 
Joined: April 2015
Location: London
Steam: AmirMoosavi
Favorite title: Shenmue II
Currently playing: Vanquish (PC)

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby sand4fish » Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:55 pm

Those numbers (of backers) are deceiving, as plenty (if not most) of us created multiple accounts solely to reap extra rewards and pump those numbers up. I for one created 4 accounts and during the entirety of the campaign's period encouraged people in the KS comment section to do the same. And I wonder how many pledges were declined in the end.

I already accepted that Shenmue is and always will be a niche game long ago. Though I really hope the recognition Shenmue 3 garnered throughout KS will be enough to turn hype into sales numbers, as I believe the best marketing was already done by the community.
User avatar
sand4fish
"After Burner...Great!"
"After Burner...Great!"
 
Joined: November 2013
Favorite title: Shenmue

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby Yokosuka » Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:01 pm

Depends on which publisher YSnet can get in the future. Sony, Sega, Bandai, none, etc.
User avatar
Yokosuka
Machine Gun Fist
Machine Gun Fist
 
Joined: August 2014
Location: France
Favorite title: Shenmue II
Currently playing: Rocket League

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby belinho » Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:13 pm

punkmanced wrote:The campaign’s 70K backers (aka the dedicated fanbase) will most likely buy at least one additional copy upon the game’s release


Even without considering the multiple accounts per pledger, in those 70k backers, i reckon a lot of them are people that cave in to the hype, and seeing that the most backed tier was the 29$ one, i guess people just thought it was an incredible value for a game this profile.

But again, comparing the Dreamcast vs PS4 player base, and with that little extra PS marketing help, i can see Shenmue 3 doing incredibly better than S1&2.

Speaking of that, does anyone know if official PS channels advertised Shenmue 3 beyond the initial reveal at E3? Like the blog, or twitter, or something. Did they help in that last week, for the final push, or was it all fans work and outside sources?
User avatar
belinho
Asia Travel Representative
Asia Travel Representative
 
Joined: July 2015
Favorite title: Shenmue II

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby Amir » Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:19 pm

belinho wrote:

Speaking of that, does anyone know if official PS channels advertised Shenmue 3 beyond the initial reveal at E3? Like the blog, or twitter, or something. Did they help in that last week, for the final push, or was it all fans work and outside sources?


Saw it mentioned on the PlayStation twitter towards the end, along with Gio Corsi's Twitter and that of a couple of other Sony employees.
User avatar
Amir
"After Burner...Great!"
"After Burner...Great!"
 
Joined: April 2015
Location: London
Steam: AmirMoosavi
Favorite title: Shenmue II
Currently playing: Vanquish (PC)

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby ReeceKun » Wed Jul 29, 2015 4:45 pm

Starting a new fanbase from the 3rd game is unlikely , HD editions might help a bit , but I really dont want people asking for Shenmue 4 ten years from now. I just really hope they just end the story. If I was incharge I would have rebooted and created an anime/manga. It sat on the self doing nothing for too long
User avatar
ReeceKun
Man Mo Acolyte
Man Mo Acolyte
 
Joined: November 2009
Location: North Wales (UK)
Favorite title: Shenmue
Currently playing: Skyrim

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby punkmanced » Wed Jul 29, 2015 6:18 pm

Biscay has stated he doesn’t foresee another KS campaign in the future; then again, if Shenmue 3 were to only sell 100K copies at launch, he might suddenly feel the need to eat those words… assuming part 4 would still be an option.

Personally, I’m optimistic in regards to Sony’s backing…though at this point we don’t have much to go on. Sega’s past marketing campaigns from the Shenmue 1 & 2 days weren’t exactly stellar considering they were promoting one of the Dreamcast’s flagship franchises, and…let’s face it, back then, Shenmue’s graphics were amazing enough to sell quite a few of those copies to begin with (there was no competition; graphics-wise, the game looked like it came straight out of the 21st century. Not the case anymore).

-Shenmue 1 sold about 1.2M copies;
-Shenmue 2 (DC/ Xbox), roughly 500K units.
http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=shenmue

I’m curious to see where part 3 will stand. One thing’s certain: the game won’t sell nearly as well without an HD collection. It should only be a matter of time until that’s announced, IMO.
User avatar
punkmanced
Man Mo Acolyte
Man Mo Acolyte
 
Joined: May 2003
Favorite title: Shenmue

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby Sh3ppy » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:15 pm

ReeceKun wrote: Starting a new fanbase from the 3rd game is unlikely , HD editions might help a bit , but I really dont want people asking for Shenmue 4 ten years from now. I just really hope they just end the story. If I was incharge I would have rebooted and created an anime/manga. It sat on the self doing nothing for too long


I'm probably just being obtuse, but do you mean instead of making Shenmue III (as a game)?
User avatar
Sh3ppy
Funny Bear Burger Clerk
Funny Bear Burger Clerk
 
Joined: July 2015
PSN: rambleon11
Favorite title: Shenmue II

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby Sh3ppy » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:17 pm

punkmanced wrote: Biscay has stated he doesn’t foresee another KS campaign in the future; then again, if Shenmue 3 were to only sell 100K copies at launch, he might suddenly feel the need to eat those words… assuming part 4 would still be an option.

Personally, I’m optimistic in regards to Sony’s backing…though at this point we don’t have much to go on. Sega’s past marketing campaigns from the Shenmue 1 & 2 days weren’t exactly stellar considering they were promoting one of the Dreamcast’s flagship franchises, and…let’s face it, back then, Shenmue’s graphics were amazing enough to sell quite a few of those copies to begin with (there was no competition; graphics-wise, the game looked like it came straight out of the 21st century. Not the case anymore).

-Shenmue 1 sold about 1.2M copies;
-Shenmue 2 (DC/ Xbox), roughly 500K units.
http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=shenmue

I’m curious to see where part 3 will stand. One thing’s certain: the game won’t sell nearly as well without an HD collection. It should only be a matter of time until that’s announced, IMO.


I think the lack of marketing was a huge reason for I & II doing poorly. Shenmue IIx was a joke marketing-wise as well.

Sh3ppy has received a thanks from: punkmanced
User avatar
Sh3ppy
Funny Bear Burger Clerk
Funny Bear Burger Clerk
 
Joined: July 2015
PSN: rambleon11
Favorite title: Shenmue II

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby belinho » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:23 pm

I'm a pessimist, and i gotta tell you. Sometimes i feel like an HD collection might not have that strong pull for "outsiders". It won't mean anything nostalgia-wise to them, that's a given. And gameplay-wise, i just don't see it grabbing the attention of the younger players, the games require patience and a bit of grinding, so i don't see people (a lot of them, anyway) jump in. It can even drive some away.

I was just checking the Shenmue thread on neogaf, and someone is playing Shenmue 1 for the first time (i think) and he talks about that, the pace of the game, the lack of a modern gps radar, and the likes.
Although he admits he's liking the game, my pessimistic side tells me the masses won't.

Of course, i wish for an HD release and i hope the sales prove me wrong.
User avatar
belinho
Asia Travel Representative
Asia Travel Representative
 
Joined: July 2015
Favorite title: Shenmue II

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby Jesse » Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:41 am

I would love it if Shenmue 3 did around the 3 million mark. I think that's feasible with both steam and the ps4 fan base excluding us. The Shenmue franchise is fine in Suzuki's hands nothing to worry about.
User avatar
Jesse
Master of the Three Blades
Master of the Three Blades
 
Joined: February 2006
Location: Memphis, TN, U.S.A.
PSN: Jrockstr

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby punkmanced » Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:56 am

belinho wrote: I'm a pessimist, and i gotta tell you. Sometimes i feel like an HD collection might not have that strong pull for "outsiders". It won't mean anything nostalgia-wise to them, that's a given. And gameplay-wise, i just don't see it grabbing the attention of the younger players, the games require patience and a bit of grinding, so i don't see people (a lot of them, anyway) jump in. It can even drive some away.

I was just checking the Shenmue thread on neogaf, and someone is playing Shenmue 1 for the first time (i think) and he talks about that, the pace of the game, the lack of a modern gps radar, and the likes.
Although he admits he's liking the game, my pessimistic side tells me the masses won't.

Of course, i wish for an HD release and i hope the sales prove me wrong.


Well…we were all young Shenmue players at one point, so I don’t think age will necessarily play a huge factor in this case. However, I definitely agree with you on Shenmue remaining a niche franchise that won’t appeal to the masses, for a million different reasons.

Anyway, I don't think Ys Net/ Sony/ etc. really have a choice in the matter: they have to pull in new fans…unless they want to sell what? 100K units? I mean, it’s impossible to jump directly into part 3 of this spectacularly linear franchise; worst case scenario, they could probably include a Shenmue: The Movie type of pack-in, like they did with S2x…but, then again, that last one failed so hard, they had to sh*tcan the franchise for 15 odd years.

In all likelihood, Sega will try to ride the wave as well, and eventually announce an HD collection of sorts. As a company that would want to sell as many copies of the game as possible (not to mention a few consoles as well), Sony would hopefully already be working out the details with Sega in that regard.
User avatar
punkmanced
Man Mo Acolyte
Man Mo Acolyte
 
Joined: May 2003
Favorite title: Shenmue

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby fittersau » Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:02 am

I will chime and say it's a really hard slog to get non-fans onto the bandwagon.

I was only able to convince two of my many gaming friends to jump on board. Both of the got the $29 tier. One of the after much badgering, the other spontaneously did it because she was impressed with the Volunteer Teacher's retweet in Guilin in China, herself being Chinese might of had something to do with too.

There is just so much that Shenmue can offer many gamers, such as a great engaging story, MMA style fighting, open world-ish, mini games. Much of what makes The Witcher 3 a great game was found in Shenmue. But Shenmue just doesn't have that same raw danger about it that makes games appealing in today's DOOM/COD/BF/DudeBro dominated machismo gaming landscape.

A few people I know, who used to be fans didn't even help kickstart. They're just happy to let the true hard core fans shell out the cash to fund development and buy a retail copy later.

I really hope we don't have to Kickstart Shenmue IV or V because despite being an amazing month, it was exhausting and stressful. Even hitting $6.3 million dollars, I'm not even sure what kinda of game we're getting.

Part of me likes to think yeah, those rumours were right, Sony only wanted a low $2m to know that there is an appetite for it. That same part of me wants to think Sony and Shibuya will foot the rest of the development bill no matter what and for them to talk about marketing and porting to PS4 was only a ruse.

But the other part of me hears what Suzuki says and that only the $6.3m from the kickstarter will be used for development of the game and associated costs like Kickstarter levy, merchandise creation and shipping etc, and as a result, we'll miss out on many things which made Shenmue 1 & 2 great because it had a healthy budget.

Perhaps it's a mix of both, probably that will be the best scenario.

With Bloodstained, correct me if I'm wrong, Igarashi asked for $500,000 as a proof of concept of fan's desire for a Castlevania type game. They said it was 10% of what they needed, therefore the real cost is $500,000 x 10 = $5,000,000. They got $5,500,000 or there abouts. So they got enough to make a side scroller.

With Shenmue if we apply the same logic that the original goal was $2,000,000 and that represents 10% again, therefore the real cost would be $2,000,000 x 10 = $20,000,000. We raised $6,300,000 so, $13,700,000 short of what it probably should take to make Shenmue III.

Now by Adam Korilik's videos, we heard that at that time Shenmue I's real cost was approximately $20m as well. So perhaps that reinforces the real cost to make Shenmue III.

So will Sony and Shibuya foot the rest of the $13.7 million, will they be able to make that money back and then get profit as well? Tough question..

Maybe, that's why Suzuki said, if we obtain $10 million in the kickstarter, he can realise his true open world vision for Shenmue III because Sony & Shibuya would either double the kickstarter fund 2x$10m = $20 million. So if going by that premise if Sony & Shibuya double the Kickstarter, we get $12.6 million, which is still $7.4 million short of the full $20 million budget. Or Sony & Shibuya are putting in a flat $10 million, so we get to $16.3 million which leaves $3.7 million short.

Not enough information to really know. :-$
User avatar
fittersau
Man Mo Acolyte
Man Mo Acolyte
 
Joined: July 2015

Re: Shenmue 3 sales & franchise future

Postby south carmain » Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:29 am

With all the hype that has surrounded it thanks to sony and the kickstarter and sony backing it marketing wise I think it has a good chance to sell decently at least. At least I really hope it does.
User avatar
south carmain
Comrade of the motherland
"Keep Friends"
 
Joined: February 2012
Favorite title: Shenmue IIx
Currently playing: okami hd

Next

Return to Shenmue III

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

Powered by phpBB © 2000-
ShenmueDojo.net