Lessons Shenmue III can take from recent indie game failures

[Zoltor]

There's no lessons to be learned form mighty #0 for Shenmue or any of the other major kickstarters, as the Mighty # 0 issues, don't really apply, so I wish people would stop using Mighty #0 to fuel doubt.


First of all, all the other major kickstarter games are being made by the true creators of the original games, where despite what we were all made to believe, Inafaune It not the creator of MM or even the supposed co-creater, he was some mareting designer or some BS along those line. There's no way he ever lead a team in any other projects as well, since his lack of leadership would bankrupt a company, if he did or atleast destroy said company's PR

2nd, have you seen the quality of the teams, Mighty #0 was made with like nobodies fresh out of college, where all the other major Kickstarters use industy vets, some of which worked on the past games. Lol as for Shenmue specifically, it has a dream team.

There is no parallels whatso ever, between Mighty #0, and any of the other major Kickstarter games. Also while It's natural to focus on the most recent thing, people need to try, and keep in king, that major game crowd funded projects have a insanely high rate of success, with really only Mighty #0, and Star Citizen being the exception.

Speaking of Mighty #0, and Star Citizen, now those games have a lot of parallels

[shredingskin]

Wasn't star citizen stacking crazy ammount of money with people buying addons ?

Why was it a fail ?

In these type of KS games the problem tends to be the scope of the teams and the workflow, a group of 5 guys could have done a better job than MN9, but having lots of people on a payroll when you don't have a producer on your ass (and also transfusing money) makes the money go away fast and a lot of teams not really understanding how indie development works suffer from it (look at DoubleFine). Also, the more nodes of people you have the less practical/fast things go (when it should be more people = faster).

Shenmue needs to keep the staff small and have a well developed schedule (and development milestones well set).

We know that it wasn't the case for the previous Shenmue games, but I think that YS has thought of the budget quite enough, and did much of the pre-production beforehand.

[Peter]

"Noodles become fat" as Yu said. Shenmue 2 was way out of control, and I have a sneaking suspicion that, despite how great Shenmue 2 turned out, it may have been a factor as to why Okayasu-San left the project around the 70% mark (even though he went to start up Studiofake).

[shredingskin]

How japanese didn't think of that phrase as a sexual innuendo baffles me.

[Zoltor]

Wasn't star citizen stacking crazy ammount of money with people buying addons ?

Why was it a fail ?

In these type of KS games the problem tends to be the scope of the teams and the workflow, a group of 5 guys could have done a better job than MN9, but having lots of people on a payroll when you don't have a producer on your ass (and also transfusing money) makes the money go away fast and a lot of teams not really understanding how indie development works suffer from it (look at DoubleFine). Also, the more nodes of people you have the less practical/fast things go (when it should be more people = faster).

Shenmue needs to keep the staff small and have a well developed schedule (and development milestones well set).

We know that it wasn't the case for the previous Shenmue games, but I think that YS has thought of the budget quite enough, and did much of the pre-production beforehand.

It's a fail, because It's nothing but a scam. It's in a state of infinite early access, and will never leave.

Even to this date, there's nothing even remotely close to resembling a complete game of any type, It's just bits, and pieces of various types of games.

He is not setting any real goals, every dolar more ge gets, It's "supposed" just adding more crap no one even asked for to the game(sound familiar), the only difference is, Inafeune is just a moron, where as Chris Roberts is a outright scam artist(who's pocketing tons of the money, as well as spending it on stupid shit, like props around the office lol).

It's a trainwreck, and now he has openly made a downright illegal, and unethical change to the TOS(The Know posted a Youtube video on such, if you want to check that out).

[Himuro]

Wasn't star citizen stacking crazy ammount of money with people buying addons ?

Why was it a fail ?

In these type of KS games the problem tends to be the scope of the teams and the workflow, a group of 5 guys could have done a better job than MN9, but having lots of people on a payroll when you don't have a producer on your ass (and also transfusing money) makes the money go away fast and a lot of teams not really understanding how indie development works suffer from it (look at DoubleFine). Also, the more nodes of people you have the less practical/fast things go (when it should be more people = faster).

Shenmue needs to keep the staff small and have a well developed schedule (and development milestones well set).

We know that it wasn't the case for the previous Shenmue games, but I think that YS has thought of the budget quite enough, and did much of the pre-production beforehand.

Great post. It seems this is a common observation from these games: their teams appear to be hideously big. Didn't NMS have a 100 person team?

I trust Yu with budgeting and stuff. I just hope everything turns out right but I still have some doubts and worries in the back of my head no matter how rational or irrational they are. They're partly spurred on the recent indie and KS game fuck ups too. Maybe I'm just letting the failures get to me and not concentrating on the successes.

[Zoltor]

Wasn't star citizen stacking crazy ammount of money with people buying addons ?

Why was it a fail ?

In these type of KS games the problem tends to be the scope of the teams and the workflow, a group of 5 guys could have done a better job than MN9, but having lots of people on a payroll when you don't have a producer on your ass (and also transfusing money) makes the money go away fast and a lot of teams not really understanding how indie development works suffer from it (look at DoubleFine). Also, the more nodes of people you have the less practical/fast things go (when it should be more people = faster).

Shenmue needs to keep the staff small and have a well developed schedule (and development milestones well set).

We know that it wasn't the case for the previous Shenmue games, but I think that YS has thought of the budget quite enough, and did much of the pre-production beforehand.

Great post. It seems this is a common observation from these games: their teams appear to be hideously big. Didn't NMS have a 100 person team?

I trust Yu with budgeting and stuff. I just hope everything turns out right but I still have some doubts and worries in the back of my head no matter how rational or irrational they are. They're partly spurred on the recent indie and KS game fuck ups too. Maybe I'm just letting the failures get to me and not concentrating on the successes.

While most of the big Kickstarters games are still in the process of being made, just try to remember Elite Dangerous was a Kickstarter game, and wasn't Shovel Knight a kickstarter game as well(while not major like Elite Dangerous, and the upcoming Shenmue/Bloodstained games, but still a pretty big, as well as insanely popular)

[SMDzero]

"Noodles become fat" as Yu said. Shenmue 2 was way out of control, and I have a sneaking suspicion that, despite how great Shenmue 2 turned out, it may have been a factor as to why Okayasu-San left the project around the 70% mark (even though he went to start up Studiofake).

Okayasu-San directed all of Shenmue 1 but only 70% of Shenmue 2....

Makes you wonder what Shenmue 2 would have been like if Okayasu-San had finished his version of the game...

Are there lost scenes for Shenmue 2 that were directed by Okayasu-San before he left the project?

Will we ever seen Shenmue 2 as it was originally conceived and intended?

[shredingskin]

their teams appear to be hideously big. Didn't NMS have a 100 person team?

I trust Yu with budgeting and stuff.

Some just had such big teams because they came from being bankrolled by a publisher, so they tried to keep the same team with less budget and little to no income.

I think that NMS was started by 5 guys and at full blown were around 20 people (don't quote me on that), the problem with the game was overhype and lack of engaging mechanics (as I look at reviews, since I didn't play it).

I don't really trust Yu with budget (I can't remember if Shenmue Online costed 10 or 100 million), but I think this will be different project and he's aware of that.

There are two things that worry me (just a little):
- His waterfall approach to design is probably the best for creative stuff, but not that much to set well defined milestones (as it needs lots of iteration), also him wanting to do a "revolution" is probably "testing a lot of stuff", so he'll probably have to concede some stuff to keep the development flowing.
- Him trying to mantain the release date. I hope they give the game the time it needs to shine and not feel pressured by the KS release date.

[Yokosuka]

Some critics say Suzuki does not know how to manage properly a budget but Shenmue Online had a rather low budget considering it was a MMO. He was basically asked to perform miracles with inexperienced Korean employees.
About Shenmue Dreamcast, it's harder to be fair but the massive R&D was legitimate, the team was likely penalized by the Saturn fail and the games met finally the expectation, which is quite an achievement as the core negative critics were only artistic.

But while Suzuki didn't promise the moon, having a project being named "Shenmue 3" is enough to set the expectation very high and expose the game to an inevitable critic failure unfortunately. Not all Shenmue fans are main interested by the story by the way and the potential newcomers view the franchise with very high consideration as the legend around Shenmue is damn big (record budget at the time, open world shocker, eye-catching details fest, blow-minding immersion and goes on). That's the only trouble I could see at the moment.

[fittersau]

also him wanting to do a "revolution" is probably "testing a lot of stuff", so he'll probably have to concede some stuff to keep the development flowing.
- Him trying to mantain the release date. I hope they give the game the time it needs to shine and not feel pressured by the KS release date.

That is my concern with Suzuki. The inherent need for him to prove himself as an innovator again. This is not necessary. I don't need to see any more innovative game play. I just want a continuation to Shenmue 2 with stream lined game play using the innovations he pioneered and others have refined over the years.　

[Spaghetti]

Okayasu-San directed all of Shenmue 1 but only 70% of Shenmue 2....

Makes you wonder what Shenmue 2 would have been like if Okayasu-San had finished his version of the game...

Are there lost scenes for Shenmue 2 that were directed by Okayasu-San before he left the project?

Will we ever seen Shenmue 2 as it was originally conceived and intended?

70% is probably far enough along to have the content locked or near-locked (and the cut content from II is already pretty well documented and largely inconsequential), so most likely we got the "full-fat version" of Shenmue II whichever way we cut it.

More isn't always better. I hope we remember that when III comes along.

[Zoltor]

Some critics say Suzuki does not know how to manage properly a budget but Shenmue Online had a rather low budget considering it was a MMO. He was basically asked to perform miracles with inexperienced Korean employees.
About Shenmue Dreamcast, it's harder to be fair but the massive R&D was legitimate, the team was likely penalized by the Saturn fail and the games met finally the expectation, which is quite an achievement as the core negative critics were only artistic.

But while Suzuki didn't promise the moon, having a project being named "Shenmue 3" is enough to set the expectation very high and expose the game to an inevitable critic failure unfortunately. Not all Shenmue fans are main interested by the story by the way and the potential newcomers view the franchise with very high consideration as the legend around Shenmue is damn big (record budget at the time, open world shocker, eye-catching details fest, blow-minding immersion and goes on). That's the only trouble I could see at the moment.

Those are probally the same people, who think Shenmue 1 cost 70m to make lol.

If they would look at facts, they would find Shenmue 1, and Shenmue 2 for the DC, was actually super cheap for every thing they did(It breaks down to like 8m for Shenmue 1, and 13-15m for Shenmue 2)

Sigh, yea that's true, unless Shenmue 3 trumps Shenmue 2(which may not even be possible with all the funding in the world, It's hard enough to repeat such, but definitively beating such, is a whole other story altogether), they're going to bash it hard.

However on the upside, no one gives a shit what so called professional reviewers say about any game ingeneral, and for a game like Shenmue 3, it really comes down to what hardcore fans of the 1st two games think about it, not some political agenda driven media outlet.

[Himuro]

Some critics say Suzuki does not know how to manage properly a budget but Shenmue Online had a rather low budget considering it was a MMO. He was basically asked to perform miracles with inexperienced Korean employees.
About Shenmue Dreamcast, it's harder to be fair but the massive R&D was legitimate, the team was likely penalized by the Saturn fail and the games met finally the expectation, which is quite an achievement as the core negative critics were only artistic.

But while Suzuki didn't promise the moon, having a project being named "Shenmue 3" is enough to set the expectation very high and expose the game to an inevitable critic failure unfortunately. Not all Shenmue fans are main interested by the story by the way and the potential newcomers view the franchise with very high consideration as the legend around Shenmue is damn big (record budget at the time, open world shocker, eye-catching details fest, blow-minding immersion and goes on). That's the only trouble I could see at the moment.

However on the upside, no one gives a shit what so called professional reviewers say about any game ingeneral, and for a game like Shenmue 3, it really comes down to what hardcore fans of the 1st two games think about it, not some political agenda driven media outlet.

Keep telling yourself this. The rest of us want III to be a smash out success critically and commercially so we can get IV. If you don't think the media putting a good word in for a game is how you sell a game, you're an utter fool. Shenmue III needs to be liked by YouTube streamers for instance to find success. Thinking hardcore fans are the only thing that matters is a quick way to not getting Shenmue IV.

Most indie games live and die by positive reviews. Games like Undertale and Stardew Valley and Terraria and Minecraft became things purely because they were reviewed so well. If Shenmue III can have the sales and reception of Stardew Valley I would be VERY happy.

[Sonoshee]

Not going overboard with promises. I think it's actually a good thing S3 didn't make all its stretch goals because a lot of indie development teams tend to overestimate themselves and go like "Oh yeah, we're gonna include all the stretch goals plus this and this and that..."

It's also a good thing, S3 has Cedric as co-producer. A major issue for many (indie) games is the fact they don't have a tough producer in the background who will kick everybody's asses if they spend too much money. Cedric seems to me much more of a businessman than Yu is but it is also very reassuring that Yu seems to have a very clear understanding what he can and what he cannot achieve with the given budget.

Also it'd be wise to try very hard to keep up to the time schedule, imho. A 1-3 months delay would not be that bad, but half a year or even more would freak a lot of backers out and also offer a big opportunity for a lot of bad press. I personally wouldn't mind even 9 months of delay but keep in mind not everybody is as willing to accept a delay as us on the Dojo.