Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation

[shredingskin]

To be honest I thought that 5mil would be a fantasy. But now I see it exeeding it.

Hopefully the team can upgrade the kickstarter/tiers with more videos, community and shit like that.

[Luke_09]

I thought I would just share an opinion with people on here regarding predictions as to how much Shenmue 3 could make on KickStarter.

Because I'm (very) sad and have plenty of free time at the moment I've decided to make a note of the KickStarter pledge total numerous times throughout the day.

Today for example (17/6/15):
At 11:50 am this morning (GMT) the total was - $2,924,509
At 21:00 pm this evening (GMT) the total was - $3,045,249

So within about 9 hours the Shenmue III KickStarter had made: $120,740
So it's making over ~$120,000 in less than a full 24 hours.

Obviously as the donations slow-down over time (as I am sure they naturally will); even if we were to make a conservative prediction that for the next 30 days, for example let's say if the Shenmue III KS accumulates ~$100,000 per day; that means the overall total could potentially increase by $3 million.

Not bad at all! Let's just hope this momentum continues for the next 30 days. If donations continue at a value far greater than $100,000 / day then the overall total would be significantly higher. Exciting stuff!

(P.S. - apologies for the very sad and nerdy post! Think I need to get out more )

[sand4fish]

^ Why are you apologizing? We have all been waiting 14 years for a videogame that even an entire new generation of gamers never even heard of... it doesn't get more nerdy than that LOL

[Master Kyodai]

I am normally pessimistic. But Shenmue has been the second fastest fund gatherer in Kickstarters history and by far the fastest gathering game ever. Over 1 million US Dollars funded in less than 3 hours. After not even 72 hours it's already in the list of the 25 most funded projects in the world. it took less than 16 hours to reach it's funding goal. After not even 70 hours it is among the worlds 7 most funded game projects. And with like 30 days left it is extremely obvious that it will surpass even projects like "Double fine adventure" which were heavily advertised and lead by a true legend in game making (Like Yu Suzuki himself).

Even if funding speed slows down a lot I think it's extremely realistic that Shnmue will be among the top 3 most funded games ever within less than a week and by end of the campaign i would be personally surprised if it would not end up as the most funded video game of all times.

[shredingskin]

I think it will surpass the castlevania game, but I have to be honest that kickstarter looked a lot more professional.

I hope the team was stored a lot of stuff, specially to bring all those guys that didn't play the originals but want to be part of the hype (right now the kickstarter main video doesn't say pretty much nothing to them).

Also Yu seems to be doing a lot of interviews, that's a good thing to gather attention.

[Himuro]

I'm hoping for at least 6 million but that's optimistic.

[Luke_09]

If it could get to $10 million that would be absolutely amazing! The only way it can achieve that is if it sustains it's daily level of funding! Fingers crossed people!

I guess all we can keep doing is raising awareness of the KickStarter campaign.

[Master Kyodai]

It already surpassed Wasteland 2 which was not just a long anticipated and advertised game with a massive fan base but also one that was announced ages before fund raising even started. Shenmue 3 was pretty much a surprise and it did in hours what took Wasteland 2 (great game btw) over a month. So no good time for pessimists like me. And keep in mind that many people are on summer vacation right now and didn't even hear about it yet.

[sand4fish]

And keep in mind that many people are on summer vacation right now and didn't even hear about it yet.

We will make sure they do. There's no stopping on the the Shenmue hype train.

[JohnBlack]

5-6m

[V man]

I think predictions of 10m+ are wildly ambitious and not grounded in reality. In the last few hours Kickstarter has slowed down to a crawl. You have to remember that the majority of people who are passionate about shenmue have already contributed. A lot of these people are die hard fans who owned the original games. The rest of the Dreamcast owners would have completely forgotten and stopped caring a long time ago. I know personally quite a few people who purchased Shenmue and were underwhelmed completely by it. The others sold their Dreamcast even before its demise and never bought Shenmue 2, even if they liked the first one. Try convincing them to cough up even a dollar for Shenmue now, especially given that on the KickStarter page, it is stated that the "2m" goal has already been reached. Not that easy.

The majority of "gaming" public from circa 2000 did not own a Dreamcast, so they have even less incentive to back up the bid. Today, I thought I'd spread the word to the guys I work with in my office. All in their mid twenties. Around 10 of them. 7-8 of those play/used to play games - but NONE owned a Dreamcast, let alone knew what the hell Shenmue even is. Sure, they were intrigued when I told them the whole story, but that's it. They wouldn't contribute a dime. And I'm sure they forgotten about it already...

Havng said that, I think that realistically it can reach 4.5m. Anything over that seems optimistic.

[Tomato Convenience Store]

I think it'll hit $5 million. It'll probably get $50k/day from here on out until the last couple of days.

[MiTT3NZ]

So, after a bit of half-arsed research and comparisons to other similarly successful video game projects, it seems that it will:

- Exceed $4.5mil.
- Fail to exceed $6mil.

Meeting in the middle means that we'll probably see it raise just over $5mil in total, probably sitting at around $5.25m.

Of course though it haven't used a foolproof mathematical equation or consulted a time traveller, but I reckon it sounds about right. Obviously hoping it can hit as close to 10 as possible though.

[ShenmueTree]

They're thinking about adding a Pay Pal donation link as well, which will help with funding even once the kickstarter ends.

I think they could reach ten million if they do the following things.

1. Better structure their kickstarter.
2. Explain in detail what each Stretch goal is.
3. Detail a graph for how much money is needed for each portion of development
4. ADD PS4 Physical Kickstarter backer exclusive.
5. Explain the minimize size of the game and locations. Ie, if the game will have 4 main locales regardless of if it reaches 6 million dollars or not. I don't think having one location will cut it.
6. Fire Awesome Japan, hire the team that did Bloodstained immediately.

[Gavan]

I think it will make about 5-6 million. I hope for more than that though (10 million would be incredible).