31.000 in 3 days....

(Chapter 7 and beyond)

Re: 31.000 in 3 days....

Postby Shenhua-Nani? » Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:06 pm

Make no mistake guys, i'm extremely happy all this happened, and all things considered i would rate it a big success if we finish at 5millions.

I just want the best for the only shot we have, and seeing it in the hands of complete amateurs makes me furious.

Luckily we are the best community a game could ever have, or we wouldnt have gotten this far. :)

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Re: 31.000 in 3 days....

Postby fumega » Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:06 pm

drunkensailor wrote: this is not looking good at all. might not even break 5 million. it is now doing a lot worse on daily average than bloodstained did at the time. I can't believe how poorly yu suzuki is running his "dream" on kickstarter :(


Not looking good? He asked for two million and he'll probably reach more than double of that amount...
As I've stated on the Shenmue Kickstarter Estimation thread:

fumega wrote:
In my opinion it will get a little more than $4M and way less than $5M... Why do I say this? Because Shenmue is a special project on Kickstarter, as it's basically made for the fans, and almost all the fans already donated.

Some other projects have a surge at the beginning and another one at the end, but Shenmue had an huge surge at the beginning (all the fans donated), but at the end who is it going to donate, as almost all the fans will have already done so?

One has to understand that Shenmue III is a niche product. Outside of the fan base (like us), who is it going to be interested on playing it? You need to play both Shenmue I and II in order to get the full grasp of the story, and nowadays no one is going to pick it up from the third installment.

Regards.


And, by looks of it, my estimations were fairly accurate.
It's never going to make 10 million USD on Kickstater, and, to be frank, I really don't understand why Yu only asked for 2 million when, by his own admission, he needs at least 10 million to make his vision of the game come true...

Regards.

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Re: 31.000 in 3 days....

Postby life_247 » Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:07 pm

Im not saying Im not thrilled Im just stating that there was always going to be a huge influx early on and then it would tail off. The game is cult theres not too many gamers who will go "oh yeah that game, I used to play that back in the day - it would be cool to play another one". People either know and love it or dislike/disinterested in it.

I do have my reservations about kickstarter but I do know that its probably the only way to get it funded. But I care more about Shenmue III than I do any morale stand point on Kickstarter :P

It is however a sensible move all round - Unreal Engine 4 is free to use and they just take 5% of profit (over $30,000 per quater) having Sony on board and providing technical support as well as marketing is good although I'd love for it to be a 2nd party game.

TBH We're not going to see this thing completed for 2-3 years so I shouldn't really be THAT fussed but:
:rotflmao:

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Re: 31.000 in 3 days....

Postby Reprise » Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:09 pm

Things could be much better, but I'm not surprised it's not doing as well as Castlevania (Bloodstained) anyways, regardless of the issues the Shenmue 3 campaign has. Castlevania is just a way bigger series IMO.

Of course, we all know the problems with the kickstarter, but in my opinion, this is the main issue:

MAIN PROBLEM: The fact the media and press turned on Shenmue 3, Sony and YS for lack of transparency and lots of misinformation has done the rounds (as someone else pointed out, it's completely unfair).

MINOR PROBLEM: The kickstarter page needs updating, they need to release artwork and new information etc and they need to add new reward tiers to entice new donations. The stretch goals need to be placed higher on the page.

One thing I have to say though, we should celebrate what the campaign HAS accomplished (fastest to reach 1million and 2million etc), but yes, there is work to be done.

Hopefully, they are working on something for the kickstarter (we all got an email and survey) and more positive press is occuring now, so let's hope for the best.
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Re: 31.000 in 3 days....

Postby Reprise » Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:14 pm

fumega wrote:And, by looks of it, my estimations were fairly accurate.
It's never going to make 10 million USD on Kickstater, and, to be frank, I really don't understand why Yu only asked for 2 million when, by his own admission, he needs at least 10 million to make his vision of the game come true...


I have to, hesitantly, agree. Whilst I'm over the moon Shenmue 3 is finally happening, it is sad to hear Yu saying he actually needs five times the amount he said was needed in order for his true vision to happen. And no kickstarter has ever made 10M. It was never going to happen, although I'm willing to stay positive and do everything I can to help it reach that goal (it won't - although maybe it will if they off Paypal donations after the KS ends).
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Re: 31.000 in 3 days....

Postby Master Kyodai » Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:14 pm

These figures don't look good - IF YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND KICKSTARTER at all.

Let's take the most successful game ever - Bloodstained. It also stalled after 2 or 3 very promising first days look looked pretty much like Shenmue now when it suddenly brought in another 1.5 million in the last 3 days. It's usually like this - that in the last 72 hours of a project many people jump the bandwagon who were undecided or had to save money and jump this train in the last minute.


Just check out the bllodstained process and compare with the Shenmue 3 data...


http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/iga/bl ... hart-daily

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Re: 31.000 in 3 days....

Postby mrandyk » Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:19 pm

Reprise wrote: Things could be much better, but I'm not surprised it's not doing as well as Castlevania (Bloodstained) anyways, regardless of the issues the Shenmue 3 campaign has. Castlevania is just a way bigger series IMO.

Of course, we all know the problems with the kickstarter, but in my opinion, this is the main issue:

MAIN PROBLEM: The fact the media and press turned on Shenmue 3, Sony and YS for lack of transparency and lots of misinformation has done the rounds (as someone else pointed out, it's completely unfair).

MINOR PROBLEM: The kickstarter page needs updating, they need to release artwork and new information etc and they need to add new reward tiers to entice new donations. The stretch goals need to be placed higher on the page.

One thing I have to say though, we should celebrate what the campaign HAS accomplished (fastest to reach 1million and 2million etc), but yes, there is work to be done.

Hopefully, they are working on something for the kickstarter (we all got an email and survey) and more positive press is occuring now, so let's hope for the best.

The media will be the media, but not fixing what is within your control over a week into the campaign is ridiculous. The tide seems to be turning on that front, I dearly hope the KS is reorganized and revamped by the weekend.
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Re: 31.000 in 3 days....

Postby shredingskin » Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:34 pm

Sorry but the bloodstained worst day was 36k, and fluttering between 60k and 40k constantly.

Today we are at 19k, yesterday was 31k, before that was 44k. This dropped badly.
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Re: 31.000 in 3 days....

Postby myshtuff » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:01 pm

Most likely because all the major fans are already in. Now we need to convince the rest of the world! :o
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Re: 31.000 in 3 days....

Postby Yokosuka » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:29 pm

shredingskin wrote: Sorry but the bloodstained worst day was 36k, and fluttering between 60k and 40k constantly.

Today we are at 19k, yesterday was 31k, before that was 44k. This dropped badly.


Just as I feared before, we're paying the fact that Shenmue 3 is a sequel unlike Bloodstained and cie. By this poor kickstarter page, it looks like YSnet clearly overestimated the fanbase width.
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