Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

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Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby Peter » Wed Jul 08, 2015 7:22 pm

nope... theres also no "BUT..." at the end of that.

I am not calling him a liar whatsoever. Its just something thats been playing on my mind.

Yu Suzuki isnt stupid. In fact, he is the opposite. A gaming innovator, a genius of producing and directing quality products that stand the test of time. Lets get that out of the way, and something we can (rarely) all agree on.


So, what if the magic $10,000,000 number is just a strategy. I mean, why that figure? A conveniently exact figure at that. We know a lot of stuff has and has not been made public, but oddly, the stretch goals have again, coincidently been rounded off nicely to exact amounts. Very nice. Very handy.

But could this all be a strategy? An embellishment on what is actually predicted to make the "full open world" that we expect Shenmue 3 to be? I hold my hand up, i am not a game developer, or have worked in the industry to know the entire process. But lets take the $47 million figure of the original game. Take away the research costs, which was a huge cost. The development across 2 consoles, which includes the development of 2 gaming engines. The manpower that went into that. The marketing. The development of new software techniques such as the data compression reinvention. I mean surely the research and engine alone would rack up a HUGE amount for that game, as well as the second.
With Shenmue 3, we have the kickstarter funding in the pot. I would hazard a guess that Yu Suzuki himself will be pumping some money into this also. Perhaps, YS.net employees may be in there too, as stakeholders? What about Shibuya Productions, surely they will have money put into this. Sony are covering marketing and distribution costs. Who are these independent investors?
So, with that in mind, what IF Yu had put a semi strategy into place where we are told $10 million is a target to cushion himself from an actual target. What if $7 million is the actual realistic target? I mean why set the bar so high with $10 million, when the record for a videogame Kickstarted before it was just over half of that target? It doesnt make sense in a way, coming from an experienced, intelligent man? Plus, we have a lot of the costs covered....

Maybe i am talking nonsense, but common sense must at least come into play at some point here. I honestly believe that if we dont hit $6.5 million for the "ragdoll reaction", then that doesnt mean that it wont be in the game. We just dont know. Just because we dont get to a strict 10,000,000, theres no need to freak out and refresh the Kickstarter page every 5 seconds until its over. No need to freak out, running around the internet screaming about campaigns, and we must do this and must do that. This is gonna be a great game, and i have no doubts that this is gonna be a full Shenmue 3. Not a crammed Baisha, and an empty Choubu and Baily Village. Its not gonna be over in 3 hours of gameplay. Oks, its going to be the size of Doubuita apparenty? Fine by me, the first game took me an age the first time i played, so bring that on again!
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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby joka » Wed Jul 08, 2015 7:37 pm

As you say it's a campaign so everything needs to be put in perspective.

He's got to set stretch goals for everyone to get behind but it's all estimated.

There's no way he's going to know the exact cost to expand a village further and it could very well be that a lot of the content in the higher goals actually gets included anyway depending on how development progresses.

The reverse could also be true I guess and they could hit some pitfalls but I think in that scenario they'd secure private funding to ensure promises were kept rather than leave content out- if there's one thing that's guaranteed it's that Shenmue fans have long memories :)
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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby Sonoshee » Wed Jul 08, 2015 7:41 pm

I'm pretty sure Yu meant each of the villages would be the size of Dobuita, not combined. It looks like you have to travel by boat between Baisha and Choubu anyway so that helps the argument.

I imagine Yu has secured a good amount of millions from other sources. He said that even if the KS didn't reach $10 mill, Shenmue 3 would still stand tall next to the first two games. And $5-6 million couldn't possibly do that.

All that said, we still need to put as much funding into the KS as possible.

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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby mjq jazz bar » Wed Jul 08, 2015 7:46 pm

I don't know about that, but I do believe a savvy investor/company will pick up the slack and help Yu Suzuki deliver the perfect sequel to Shenmue 2. You don't get to the top of the Kickstarter charts and not attract some attention. I don't care if Shenmue 2 was a flop. Re-release the originals while the hype is still there and deliver a stunning third game. We're in.

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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby ys » Wed Jul 08, 2015 7:47 pm

I've also been thinking about that. And Yu already seemed to hint at the fact that funds could be reallocated. Or saving some money developing a certain feature could then be used to work on one that wasn't officially reached during the campaign. Then we also have the external investors and maybe a Paypal alternative after the Kickstarter campaign. I'm quite sure that Yu will be able to come close to what he envisioned. And besides, all games have budget constraints during development with some ideas eventually not making it. It's just that we are aware of what might be missing this time.
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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby Mystere » Wed Jul 08, 2015 7:52 pm

I think Stretch Goals are something Ys Net / Suzuki included simply "because Kickstarters have them".

Of course the figures are pretty meaningless. Say we raise $4.9M - could Suzuki not make the Character Perspective System ($5M)? If we raise $5.9M will we still miss out on the Advanced Free Battle at $6M? And so on. Yes, $10M is an artificially specific figure, because Stretch Goals are artificial figures by nature (though with SIII's murky funding this is especially true).

What fascinates me is, say Suzuki's budget stretches further than he thought: say he can afford to include all the Battle System goals up to $7.5M -- but the KS only raised $5M. How does he then include them without making the whole KS process look like a sham? :???:

This is why adding Paypal post-Kickstarter is so important, so we can smash these Stretch Goals out of the way and neither budget NOR face-saving can be reasons not to include anything Mr. Suzuki envisions for Shenmue.
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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby shredingskin » Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:00 pm

It's all relative, some kickstarters blow the money (as double fine), some others seem to know what they're doing putting pretty good value there (tex murphy, dreamfall). Hopefully with all these years of "preproduction" and the old assets will make a great game with not AAA budget.

Also we don't know how much money it's outside from KS, or if it may get more when the game starts actually developing.

I'm sure we'll get a great game in any way.
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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby killthesagabeforeitkillsu » Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:14 pm

No, first off its impossible to know exactly how much the game will cost to that extend. Especially if you are out of the game for fourteen years.

$10M for a current gen open world game is the bare minimum and we (shenmue fans and YS) will reach that goal or more.

Kickstarter is exactly what it means, the start of the project. Now that Shenmue 3 already has $5M, it will be easier to build upon that.

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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby Jeff » Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:44 pm

Your concerns are warranted and I think everyone has them though some chose to be more vocal about it than others. YSnet has said the following, though nobody seems to care which I don't get...

No, we cannot make an open world game for $2 million. Shenmue will be produced using both the funds raised from the Kickstarter and through other funding sources already secured by Ys Net Inc.

He has more money that just what he's raising from Kickstarter. I said it countless times now, venture loan. If it flops and he can't pay back the loan, just file bankruptcy of YSnet. It's not like it owns anything or made anything in the past. I believe it was set up as as a shell company. I see this all the time in my profession. It's a business move and the bankruptcy court can't take Shenmue license because they are just 'borrowing' it.
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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby Anonymous81 » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:02 pm

Sadly, while in supporting the campaign itself I tend to be boundlessly optimistic, when it comes to the video game industry itself, I take a more pessimistic view. I can't assert that there's not any truth to this of course, and I find myself HOPING you're absolutely right. But allow me to lay out my fears.

Yu Suzuki is unquestionably a genius of video game design and an innovator and visionary. However... with all deference to his genius and all the love in the world for his creations... I must concede that it has been a long, long time since he made anything. Let alone anything the magnitude of a Shenmue. And what he's best known for, at least from an industry standpoint, are two commercial failures that ended up going grossly over budget.

That makes it hard to secure funding as it is. But then on top of that, you have to consider what Shenmue itself is. A 14 year old, highly slow paced adventure game with strong martial arts themes, and a hyper-detailed world featuring quasi-life-sim elements. That may sound amazing to those of us who love it, but it doesn't scream "mass market potential" to publishers and business partners. Not in 2015. The landscape, frankly, has changed dramatically.

So you've got several factors that make securing funding quite challenging. And then you've got the fact that the potential audience for your product, even if you CAN get it off the ground, may be quite small indeed. That's a massive risk. You find an angel donor of sorts in Sony, and you secure some limited funding from them. But it's clear they aren't willing to commit to such an unproven, massive financial risk. So you end up with a huge budget shortfall.

So what do you do? You play it safe. You come up with a Plan A, and a Plan B. Plan A: Set a minimum realistic goal so that you can, almost no matter what, at least continue to tell the story in some way, shape, or form. I believe that's what he meant by "Story oriented Shenmue," and by saying that at the most rudimentary funding level, "This will be the STORY you have been waiting for." I do believe that was a literal statement. As in, at $2 million, that's ALL we'd get.

Plan B: Come up with some rudimentary design goals that would at least flesh the game out as much as the first Shenmue if you get even halfway to them, so that it could stand up at least to that legacy, if not to the second game. But then at the same time, also go for broke and create a "pipe dream" set of goals that if somehow, some way get funded, will result in the ultimate fulfillment of your vision.

That way if you reach Plan A, you at least have something to show for it, some way to continue the story. If you make it half way to Plan B, you've at least got a GOOD game, a decent Shenmue game that you can still pack full of content and detail and make people feel they've played a game at least on part with the first Shenmue. And if you make if ALL THE WAY to plan B, then you've got the whole shebang, and the true Shenmue game people have been waiting for. Hence, "the full on Shenmue experience you have dreamed of," if we reach 10 million.

It would be wonderful if all of this was some brilliant marketing subterfuge on his part. I wouldn't feel at all deceived. On the contrary, I'd be overjoyed! But I seriously doubt this is the case. Given the issues they've had with Awesome Japan and how poor that company's track record is, given the insane level of the stretch goals, and given the generally poorly implemented nature of some of the campaign (not all of it by any means!) I really do feel they're desperately strapped for cash even with Sony and others' aid. And that the Kickstarter really is transparently exactly what they estimate they need to make the things they say they can at each stretch goal.

Which is why it's soooo frustrating and lamentable to me to see the campaign taken out of context, misconstrued, and battered in the press and the rumor mill. Because I feel like they really are just struggling to fulfill an artistic vision we've waited almost two decades for, and all anyone can do is talk about why it's not necessary or not needed. I feel the complete opposite is true.

As is almost always the case though... I hope I'm wrong. And I hope we get a robust PayPal campaign after the KS ends.

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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby Johnmiceter » Wed Jul 08, 2015 11:26 pm

I was looking at that kickstarter page (as i have donated for the first time for this game) and if you scroll down you get to see where all the money gets divided up to. So if they reach 5 million on kickstarter (which they easily will i think) about 10% goes to kickstarter which is heaps( 500,000) and 25% goes towards rewards and the total of that 5 million there will be 1.75 million in fees that goes towards Rewards and Kickstarter.

So out of that 5 million , he only gets 3.25 million. So im guessing Yu knows what he is doing and I think they definitely need more then this to give us the Full Shenmue experience.
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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby BunBunF » Thu Jul 09, 2015 1:51 am

I've thought the same thing... And in follow-up to that, I had the same thought as Anon81. Should we really be talking about or circulating this speculation that Suzuki is holding out on us? What if the $10 million for the full game figure isn't offset by the Sony and Shibuya Productions investments, but ON TOP of them? As in, maybe the real figure's $13 million. Or $14 million. Who knows.

Better to err on the side of caution and take Suzuki at his word, isn't it? While there's legitimate points to be made (why couldn't we get advanced free battle if we close at 5.9?), there's really nothing backing up conjecture that, "It can't cost THAT much!" At the end of the day, we just don't know, and I don't want to chance it... But it looks like we'll definitely be seeing what becomes of a partially funded Shenmue III.
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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby Giorgio » Thu Jul 09, 2015 11:52 am

GIA: Are there ideas you couldn't realize in a game like Shenmue with current technology?

YS: There are a lot of those! I have so many ideas in my head that even if there was a console that cost 30 million dollars, it wouldn't be enough.


Old interview of GIA with Yu Suzuki: http://thegia.com/archive/features/f010519.html
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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby Coxy » Thu Jul 09, 2015 12:52 pm

I think he was really hoping for the 10m but will do the very best he can with whatever he gets

I dont think he was expecting sites like polygon and kotaku to try to sabotage the campaign in the way they have :(
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Re: Im not calling Yu Suzuki a liar.....

Postby Himuro » Thu Jul 09, 2015 1:04 pm

Peter the $47 million was not just the first game. It was the first game, the second game, AND the Saturn prototype.

Cut in half, let's say hypothetically, that both Shenmue 1 and 2 cost 20 million each. If they cost 20 million, that brings the 10 million figure to half that. Considering that they were pioneers in what they did with Shenmue 1 and 2 and did what they did from scratch, without any much if any resource assisting their development except pure creative genius, is it really that far fetched that under a graphical like Unreal 4 - which is free, streamlined, and eases the game development process to an insane degree - that they can take that 20 million and deliver the game at Shenmue 1's scale, at exactly half that?

I don't find it skeptical at all.

That said, you're right. There's no need to freak out. The stuff we want could very well come within budget and they overestimated their cost. Or, they could have possibly underestimated the cost. We don't know. We will have to see.
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