Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby 7heavens » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:50 pm

If shenmue 1 and 2 sold approx 2 million copies. At an average price of 40 dollars, that's a revenue of 80 million.

Now shenmue didn't cost 70 million to make. It was more closer to 40 million, that's including production of shenmue 1 and 2 plus marketing, also probably the cost for r and d and the Sega Saturn version.

Shenmue was one of the best selling games on the dreamcast.

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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby Riku Rose » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:01 pm

^Not every penny goes back to Sega. Shops like Walmart and GameStop get a cut, you have to pay for manufacturing like boxes and discs, shipping and the console makers get a cut.

Most third parties make about $12 for every game sold at $60 and then most studios have bonuses that the publisher have to pay should they hit certain milestones

The Kickstarter May have been successful but so far the game hasn’t even sold 100k copies which if Sega had funded themselves would have been one of the biggest flops ever. Only chance we have of Sega jumping back in is if Shenmue III sells well enough at retail for them to want the profits of Shenmue IV for themselves.

Even with a budget of 10 million a game has to sell well over a million copies to be a success.

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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby Shenmue_Legend » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:35 pm

Riku Rose wrote: ^Not every penny goes back to Sega. Shops like Walmart and GameStop get a cut, you have to pay for manufacturing like boxes and discs, shipping and the console makers get a cut.

Most third parties make about $12 for every game sold at $60 and then most studios have bonuses that the publisher have to pay should they hit certain milestones

The Kickstarter May have been successful but so far the game hasn’t even sold 100k copies which if Sega had funded themselves would have been one of the biggest flops ever. Only chance we have of Sega jumping back in is if Shenmue III sells well enough at retail for them to want the profits of Shenmue IV for themselves.

Even with a budget of 10 million a game has to sell well over a million copies to be a success.


There's a reason that it hasn't sold many copies yet. Most sales come from buys at release. Not many people usually pre order games anyway so less than 100k copies sold doesn't mean anything right now. As for Sega, if those slimy weasels jump in on Shenmue IV after Shenmue III is released without helping the previous installment in any way, then they can go fuck themselves!
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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby MiTT3NZ » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:43 pm

I recall a number floating around here of sales figures for Shenmue 2X at about 300-400k, and the Wikipedia article puts it at 100k for the Dreamcast version. Also I remember the latter being comparatively cheap (or less expensive, at least) than most releases at the time.

Safe to say that Shenmue games didn't sell more than two million copies. That's quite good, especially for a perceived failure such as the Dreamcast.

As you say though, that's with a 40 million budget. Let's be generous and say 30% of every sale was going directly to SEGA (not AM2, Microsoft, covering advertising or publishing costs) and each game sold at £40 (though I definitely remember buying brand new DC games at £25)

That's £24 million. Converting that into USD around 2003 would've been roughly $40m. That would mean they broke even. Only they didn't, because the games cost $47m.

Either way you look at it, SEGA didn't make money out of Shenmue. Yes, it's a genuine shame, but that's reality.
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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby Hyo Razuki » Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:03 pm

sand4fish wrote:
Shenmue_Legend wrote: I mean, they're worth way over a billion dollars so the amount required to get Shenmue III fully funded should basically be nothing compared to what they're worth, right? I'm confused :?:


Nothing confusing about it. As soon as the name Shenmue was dropped this morning on the investor's board, their share price fluctuated like this:

Image



How do you know what they discussed on the board meeting? Or are you trolling? If yes, sorry for not getting the joke. No trolling or anything but please provide the link if you have any info on what they actually discussed there. I'd be very interested.

Back to the OP's question: The answer, as far as S3 is concerned is simple. Sega are gonna make free money off of it and the game is already funded. They are gonna take their share of S3's sales, they didn't give Yu this license for free. And to be fair to them, why would they give additional funding to S3? The IP has proven risky to them in the past. Now that KS backers, Shibuya, Deep Silver and maybe even other parties have paid for the game, they just need to wait for the money to roll in.

But this is also where the opportunity for S4 lies. If S3 does well enough to make the Sega guys say: "You know, what? With S3 as a foundation, S4 could probably be made at the cost of x. And last time we took y percent of S3's sales but we had to share with YS Net, Shibuya, Deep Silver and everybody else. So why don't kick the others out of the equation, hire Yu Suzuki to make the fourth game and take 100% of the profit of S4?"

This is what S3 needs to achieve.
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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby MiTT3NZ » Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:25 pm

^...it was quite clearly a joke.
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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby Hyo Razuki » Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:17 am

Yeah, I didn't get it.
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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby MiTT3NZ » Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:36 pm

A German not gettin a joke? Never!
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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby BlueCreeperBoy12 » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:10 am

Shenmue_Legend wrote:
KidMarine wrote: Well, the series cost them a lot of money and there wasn't really any proof that there was a huge demand for the series outside of hardcore fans before the Kickstarter.


I know but that was "before" the highly successful Kickstarter. After Shenmue became the highest funded Kickstarter game ever, shouldn't that have gave them more than enough of a reason to help it out? Even the teaser trailer has got more than 700K views so all of this should have shown Sega that Shenmue III is a big thing.

I bet that we all watched it multiple times. I know I did.
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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby BlueCreeperBoy12 » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:12 am

Oh. I have just realised that the creator of this thread is Shenmue_Legend. The same person who is pestering millionaires and billionaires on twitter to give money to the project for nothing in return.
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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby Shenmue_Legend » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:25 am

BlueCreeperBoy12 wrote:
Shenmue_Legend wrote:
KidMarine wrote: Well, the series cost them a lot of money and there wasn't really any proof that there was a huge demand for the series outside of hardcore fans before the Kickstarter.


I know but that was "before" the highly successful Kickstarter. After Shenmue became the highest funded Kickstarter game ever, shouldn't that have gave them more than enough of a reason to help it out? Even the teaser trailer has got more than 700K views so all of this should have shown Sega that Shenmue III is a big thing.

I bet that we all watched it multiple times. I know I did.


Youtube stops counting multiple views after the video has more than 320 views (or maybe some other number but I know it's definitely somewhere around the 300 mark). So no, the 800K views is not because of Shenmue fans that watched the video multiple times.
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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby Let's Get Sweaty » Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:53 am

BlueCreeperBoy12 wrote: Oh. I have just realised that the creator of this thread is Shenmue_Legend. The same person who is pestering millionaires and billionaires on twitter to give money to the project for nothing in return.


Whatever gives you that impression?

Shenmue_Legend wrote:I mean, they're worth way over a billion dollars so the amount required to get Shenmue III fully funded should basically be nothing compared to what they're worth, right?




Shenmue_Legend wrote:My idea currently is that we contact some celebrities such as Bill Gates and ask them for a donation. I mean, even $50M would be nothing to someone like Bill Gates!




Clearly two very different people.

Besides, he denies it in this thread, and obviously wouldn't lie to us, so I think you owe our falsely accused friend an apology...

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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby south carmain » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:59 pm

The worth of a company isn't synonym with its capital. Shenmue potentially turning a profit doesn't mean it's a worthy investment. You can prove that shenmue will most likely turn a profit but if it only makes a few million while taking resources and capital from sega over the span of 3 years then it would overall be a bad investment for the company.
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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby alexh86 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:36 pm

It's pretty clear they had no interest in making the game at all or they wouldn't have granted YS the license to make an official Shenmue III. I'm sure they are getting something out of it as companies don't just give away their intellectual property for nothing but it seems like they figured any money they could make from it was better than it sitting untouched. It will be interesting to see how the game does as the install base for PS4 + PC is massive compared to the relatively small number of people who had access to the first two. If Shenmue becomes a proven seller, it's possible Sega will be interested in working on it for Shenmue IV. I know YS has said he hopes to make a fourth game and hopes to do it the traditional way and not through crowdfunded means.
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Re: Why isn't Sega funding Shenmue III?

Postby BlueCreeperBoy12 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:52 pm

Oh for god's sake I got it completely mixed up. That's what you get for reading forum's at 2AM.

I got it mixed up with Hazuki_Dojo (tiwtter) who linked his account on one of Shenmue_Legend's posts. I completely messed up there. Sorry Shenmue_Legend.

Edit: the thread that I got mixed up about: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=51125&start=15
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