Sadly, while in supporting the campaign itself I tend to be boundlessly optimistic, when it comes to the video game industry itself, I take a more pessimistic view. I can't assert that there's not any truth to this of course, and I find myself HOPING you're absolutely right. But allow me to lay out my fears.
Yu Suzuki is unquestionably a genius of video game design and an innovator and visionary. However... with all deference to his genius and all the love in the world for his creations... I must concede that it has been a long, long time since he made anything. Let alone anything the magnitude of a Shenmue. And what he's best known for, at least from an industry standpoint, are two commercial failures that ended up going grossly over budget.
That makes it hard to secure funding as it is. But then on top of that, you have to consider what Shenmue itself is. A 14 year old, highly slow paced adventure game with strong martial arts themes, and a hyper-detailed world featuring quasi-life-sim elements. That may sound amazing to those of us who love it, but it doesn't scream "mass market potential" to publishers and business partners. Not in 2015. The landscape, frankly, has changed dramatically.
So you've got several factors that make securing funding quite challenging. And then you've got the fact that the potential audience for your product, even if you CAN get it off the ground, may be quite small indeed. That's a massive risk. You find an angel donor of sorts in Sony, and you secure some limited funding from them. But it's clear they aren't willing to commit to such an unproven, massive financial risk. So you end up with a huge budget shortfall.
So what do you do? You play it safe. You come up with a Plan A, and a Plan B. Plan A: Set a minimum realistic goal so that you can, almost no matter what, at least continue to tell the story in some way, shape, or form. I believe that's what he meant by "Story oriented Shenmue," and by saying that at the most rudimentary funding level, "This will be the STORY you have been waiting for." I do believe that was a literal statement. As in, at $2 million, that's ALL we'd get.
Plan B: Come up with some rudimentary design goals that would at least flesh the game out as much as the first Shenmue if you get even halfway to them, so that it could stand up at least to that legacy, if not to the second game. But then at the same time, also go for broke and create a "pipe dream" set of goals that if somehow, some way get funded, will result in the ultimate fulfillment of your vision.
That way if you reach Plan A, you at least have something to show for it, some way to continue the story. If you make it half way to Plan B, you've at least got a GOOD game, a decent Shenmue game that you can still pack full of content and detail and make people feel they've played a game at least on part with the first Shenmue. And if you make if ALL THE WAY to plan B, then you've got the whole shebang, and the true Shenmue game people have been waiting for. Hence, "the full on Shenmue experience you have dreamed of," if we reach 10 million.
It would be wonderful if all of this was some brilliant marketing subterfuge on his part. I wouldn't feel at all deceived. On the contrary, I'd be overjoyed! But I seriously doubt this is the case. Given the issues they've had with Awesome Japan and how poor that company's track record is, given the insane level of the stretch goals, and given the generally poorly implemented nature of some of the campaign (not all of it by any means!) I really do feel they're desperately strapped for cash even with Sony and others' aid. And that the Kickstarter really is transparently exactly what they estimate they need to make the things they say they can at each stretch goal.
Which is why it's soooo frustrating and lamentable to me to see the campaign taken out of context, misconstrued, and battered in the press and the rumor mill. Because I feel like they really are just struggling to fulfill an artistic vision we've waited almost two decades for, and all anyone can do is talk about why it's not necessary or not needed. I feel the complete opposite is true.
As is almost always the case though... I hope I'm wrong. And I hope we get a robust PayPal campaign after the KS ends.